Title Game Spread Picks

john1981cr · Joined: 16 Aug 2006 Posts: 111

By Chris Goudey
Inspin.com/WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

This NFL season has just been unbelievable as far as point-spreads are concerned. If you bet every single underdog for the whole season you would have made an unbelievable amount of money, as they’ve covered just under 60% of the time. The league has truly turned into one where any team can win on any given week. This trend has continued in the postseason, as every single dog covered last week. I’ve had a good season because in general I always tend to favor the dog, but this season has blown away any past trends I’ve looked at. It’s no big surprise then that I favor the dogs in both games this weekend, and I will be betting on both of them. If you remember I’ve picked every game during the year (hitting just over 53%), but the games I bet I’m hitting about 57%. I should’ve just bet all the dogs all season and then I’d be a rich man, but I’ll take any win I can get.

I’m going to base my results on the assumption I’m betting to win $100 with a -110 vig (meaning you have to bet $110 to win $100) and buying on/off the 3 and 7 (and occasionally the 10 or 14) for -130 when necessary. On to my picks for the championship games:

New Orleans +2.5 at Chicago
This is being billed as a great game, the classic matchup of a great offense against a great defense. The problem with that, however, is the Bears’ defense hasn’t been that great the last month or two, both in the playoffs and the last few weeks of the regular season. Granted, the Saints’ defense is nothing to write home about, but the Saints do have a great offense and the Bears don’t. The Bears do have homefield advantage and are better suited to what’s sure to be cold weather, but I think we see “Bad Rex” this week after seeing “Good Rex” last week. Look for Grossman to throw a couple of picks and the Saints to take advantage with enough points to win the game outright. I’ll buy to +3 to be safe, but I don’t think we’ll need it. We’ll go with a score of New Orleans 24, Chicago 20. My pick: NEW ORLEANS

New England +3 at Indianapolis
Sunday should really be something. First we have America’s team (the Saints) playing to get into its first Super Bowl, and then we have a rematch of one of the biggest rivalries in the game and the classic Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning matchup. If history is to repeat itself, the Patriots should win this one outright, but I think it will be a much tougher game than the past meetings. I’m not saying that Manning is going to have a good day, because until he shows otherwise I have a hard time believing he’s a clutch QB. The difference may be the Colts defense against Brady. I’m not sure what kind of jamba juice the Colts defenders have been drinking the last two weeks, but they just completely shut down both the Chiefs and the Ravens. Brady has always come up the biggest when it matters the most, but this may be his biggest test yet with the way that defense is playing. I think it will be low-scoring and will be decided by a field goal or less, so I’ll take the Patriots and buy to +3.5. It’s very hard to pick an outright winner because of the reasons I discussed, but when in doubt I usually go with the better coach and QB. Let’s go with a final score of New England 20, Indianapolis 17. My pick: NEW ENGLAND

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